How Climate Affects Olive Harvests in the U.S.
Climate is reshaping olive farming in the U.S., impacting yields and quality. California, Texas, and Oregon - the main olive-growing regions - face unique climate challenges, from drought and extreme heat to unpredictable weather and shorter growing seasons. These conditions directly affect flowering, fruit development, and harvest timing, making it harder to produce high-quality olive oil.
Key takeaways:
- Temperature sensitivity: Olive trees struggle below 18°F or above 86°F, with frost and heat waves causing significant damage.
- Water scarcity: Droughts, especially in California, reduce yields even with irrigation.
- Unpredictable weather: Sudden storms, like Tropical Storm Hilary in 2023, disrupt harvests and lower oil quality.
- Regional challenges: California battles drought and wildfires, Texas faces erratic spring weather, and Oregon contends with high rainfall and shorter growing seasons.
Solutions include planting weather-resistant olive varieties, improving irrigation, adjusting harvest schedules, and using technology like smart irrigation systems. As demand for olive oil grows in the U.S., these strategies are critical to maintaining production and quality.
Running Dry Olive Farming
Main Climate Problems for U.S. Olive Harvests
Olive growers in the U.S. are grappling with increasingly severe weather challenges that threaten both the volume and quality of their crops. These issues, which vary by region, are becoming more frequent and harder to manage.
Extreme Temperatures and Their Effects
Temperature extremes can seriously disrupt the olive-growing process, particularly during flowering and fruit development. Frost is a major concern - temperatures below 29°F can harm fruit, while young trees are at risk below 22°F. Mature trees face even greater danger when temperatures drop below 15°F.
On the other end of the spectrum, prolonged heat and drought can cause premature fruit drop, leading to significant yield losses.
Drought and Water Challenges
California, which produces up to 80% of the country’s table olives, has been hit hard by drought. Between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 harvest seasons, olive oil production in the state plummeted from three million gallons to just 1.8 million gallons. By 2022, nearly 97.5% of California was experiencing drought, with almost 60% of the state under extreme drought conditions.
The long-term outlook for water availability is equally concerning. Caitlin Peterson, associate director of the PPIC Water Policy Center, highlighted the issue:
"We estimate a 20-percent reduction in water supplies relative to what we're currently working with by 2040 in the San Joaquin Valley alone due to the combined effects of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, climate change and more stringent environmental regulations".
With agriculture accounting for about 40% of California’s water use, olive growers are under mounting pressure to adopt more efficient irrigation practices.
Unpredictable Weather Patterns
Sudden and unexpected weather changes during critical growing periods can wreak havoc on olive harvests. For instance, unseasonal rainfall can complicate processing and reduce oil quality. A clear example occurred in August 2023, when Tropical Storm Hilary hit Southern California. Heavy rain and strong winds dislodged olives and broke branches, making the harvest far more difficult. Thom Curry, owner of Temecula Olive Oil Company, shared his experience:
"Rain accompanied by strong winds dislodged fruit and broke branches, complicating harvest efforts".
This issue isn’t confined to the U.S. In Kalamata, Greece, unseasonal rain during peak harvest in December drowned many olives, resulting in a 20% to 30% drop in yield for local farmers.
Regional Climate Risks
Each region in the U.S. faces its own set of climate-related challenges, requiring specific solutions. In California, growers deal with drought, heat waves, and a growing risk of wildfires, all while navigating stricter water regulations. These localized problems demand strategies tailored to each area’s unique conditions.
The escalating severity of these climate impacts is echoed globally. Mehmet Taki, a Turkish olive oil producer, described the situation:
"Climate change, especially drought, has really affected us this season. Our production has dropped by 65 percent".
These mounting challenges emphasize the urgent need for adaptive strategies, which will be explored in the following section on mitigating climate risks.
Ways to Reduce Climate Risks
To tackle the challenges posed by unpredictable weather, olive growers are adopting a variety of strategies. These range from selecting more resilient olive varieties to leveraging advanced technologies and refining orchard management practices.
Choosing Weather-Resistant Olive Varieties
Selecting olive varieties that can endure harsh weather is becoming increasingly important as climate patterns shift unpredictably. For regions prone to frost, cold-hardy varieties are essential. While popular varieties like Arbequina and Koroneiki are often promoted for their cold tolerance, they struggle in temperatures below 10°F. For colder climates, Arroniz is a better option, with a cold tolerance rating of 5 compared to Arbequina's 3.
In areas like Austria and Hungary, where winters can be particularly severe, varieties such as Morchione, Bianchera/Belica, and Grignano/Grignana have shown exceptional resilience. Morchione, for instance, has survived temperatures as low as –14°C (7°F) and endured prolonged frosts down to –15°C (5°F) while maintaining green leaves. On the other hand, Spanish varieties like Arbequina, Hojiblanca, and Picual, as well as Italian options like Frantoio and Leccino, have proven too tender for such conditions. Some olive varieties can even withstand temperatures as low as –21°C (–6°F), making the right choice critical for long-term success.
Growers must also balance cold tolerance with the trees' need for 1,500 to 2,000 hours below 59°F to ensure proper bud differentiation.
Better Orchard Management Methods
Drought and rising temperatures demand smarter orchard management practices. Techniques like cover cropping, mulching, and soil amendments not only improve soil health but also help orchards adapt to climate stress.
- Cover cropping and mulching: Studies have shown that self-reseeding annual legume cover crops in rainfed olive orchards improve photosynthesis, soil moisture, and yield compared to conventional tillage. Permanent natural cover can boost olive fruit yield by 65% and oil yield by 69%, while also enhancing soil microporosity and organic carbon levels. Mulching with organic materials, such as pruning residues, reduces soil erosion and increases organic matter, while rice straw mulching paired with efficient irrigation has been shown to improve yield and flowering density.
- Soil amendments: Adding biochar made from dry olive pomace can significantly enhance soil performance. For example, it improves photosynthesis rates, water use efficiency, and overall olive yield in super-intensive groves.
- Irrigation management: Techniques like regulated deficit irrigation and partial root drying allow trees to maintain productivity while conserving water during droughts. Protective measures like kaolin clay sprays can reduce heat stress and sunburn, while strategic pruning improves canopy light distribution and stabilizes production.
"We studied the climate and analyzed the soil to see how best we could manage the land".
Changing Harvest Schedules
Adjusting harvest schedules to align with real-time weather conditions is another effective way to mitigate risks. Instead of sticking to fixed calendar dates, many growers now monitor weather patterns closely.
Early harvesting can help avoid damage from late-season storms or heat waves, while careful monitoring of fruit maturity ensures that oil quality remains high - a critical factor, considering it takes 80 to 100 pounds of olives to produce just one gallon of olive oil. Some growers split their harvests into phases, prioritizing vulnerable areas first and delaying hardier sections if adverse weather is predicted.
This flexibility in harvest operations not only minimizes losses but also helps maintain premium quality standards.
Using Technology and New Tools
Advanced technologies are playing a growing role in helping growers adapt to climate challenges. Smart irrigation systems use soil moisture sensors and weather forecasts to optimize water use automatically, tailoring solutions to specific orchard conditions.
Precision agriculture tools apply inputs only where needed, minimizing soil degradation. Weather monitoring platforms like Esoko in Ghana and similar systems in Kenya provide farmers with forecasts, climate-smart tips, and market prices, reaching tens of thousands weekly. In Colombia, researchers used 10 years of weather data to predict a drought in Córdoba, advising farmers to avoid planting rice and saving them $3.6 million in costs.
Real-time monitoring systems, such as Costa Rica's BANACLIMA Program, distribute weather updates to help producers make informed decisions. Other technologies, like precision greenhouses, stabilize conditions for plants, while agrivoltaics reduce heat stress and evaporation, directing rainfall into storage systems.
These tools ensure growers can respond quickly to changing conditions while continuing to produce high-quality olive oil.
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What's Next for U.S. Olive Growing
Olive cultivation in the U.S. is gaining momentum, driven by climate changes, higher standards for quality, and increasing consumer interest.
New Areas for Growing Olives
Shifting climates are making olive cultivation possible in unexpected parts of the country. Take Oregon, for example. With its warmer, drier summers, the state is now seeing conditions that favor olive trees. The Willamette Valley, known for its temperate climate and wine production, has become a hub for the fewer than 50 olive growers in the state.
"Oregon's warmer, drier summers boost olive cultivation, even for growers with limited water." – Heather Stoven, Oregon State University ag extension service
One standout example is Durant Olive Mill in Dundee, Oregon. For 18 years, the mill has been producing premium olive oils, showing what’s possible in this emerging region. In 2017, small-acreage farmers partnered with Oregon State University Extension Service to explore olive research, recognizing the crop’s potential as the climate shifts.
Meanwhile, Texas has become the second-largest olive oil producer in the country, with around 250 growers cultivating 4,000 acres of olives. Heather Stoven highlights the unique appeal of Texas olives:
"Olives are a niche crop in Texas, producing specialty locally made oil."
As these regions embrace olive cultivation, maintaining top-tier quality is becoming a priority.
Keeping Quality and Freshness High
For U.S. olive producers, maintaining quality while adapting to climate challenges is critical. Many are doubling down on freshness and excellence, as seen with brands like Big Horn Olive Oil, which is celebrated for its ultra-premium extra virgin olive oils.
In Lodi, California, Corto Olive Co. is taking innovative steps to adapt to climate pressures while preserving quality. They use regulated deficit irrigation and seed-mix cover crops to retain soil moisture and protect against evaporation. Additionally, they apply organic compounds like kaolin clay to lower canopy temperatures, reducing heat stress and improving fruit quality.
"It is a race against time to ensure that olive quality isn't compromised, thus preserving the excellence of our oils." – Ana Carrilho, Oleologist, Esporão
Global trends also add urgency. Worldwide olive oil production dropped from 3.42 million tonnes in 2021–2022 to 2.41 million tonnes in 2023–2024, pushing prices up by 50% to 70% in the past year. These challenges make the U.S. market’s focus on quality even more essential.
Rising Demand for American Olive Oil
The U.S. olive oil market is poised for rapid growth, with projections climbing from $2.99 billion in 2024 to $6.04 billion by 2033 - a compound annual growth rate of 8.14%. By 2024–25, the U.S. is expected to account for 13% of global olive oil consumption, making it the second-largest user worldwide.
Health-conscious consumers and the popularity of the Mediterranean diet are fueling demand for extra virgin olive oils. The rise in home cooking has also driven retail sales, as people seek out high-quality ingredients.
American producers are responding with creativity. In September 2024, Corto Olive Co. launched its limited Harvest 2024 Agrumato-Method Calabrian Chili Olive Oil, blending fresh heirloom Calabrian chilies with fall-harvest olives for a bold flavor profile [33, 34]. The virgin olive oil segment alone is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2030.
This growing demand offers U.S. producers a chance to thrive, combining premium quality with climate-smart practices to meet the needs of a changing market.
Conclusion: Adjusting to Climate Change for Long-Term Success
The future of U.S. olive production depends heavily on taking proactive steps to adapt to climate challenges. As environmental engineer Nicolas Netien points out, the unpredictability of climate patterns remains the biggest hurdle in creating systems that can withstand and thrive under these changes.
Some American olive growers are already leading the way by adopting regenerative farming practices. For instance, research from California Olive Ranch reveals that their trees capture over 4 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per liter of olive oil produced. This approach goes beyond standard organic methods, focusing on rebuilding natural resources and strengthening farm ecosystems for the long haul. These efforts reflect a critical shift as global climate trends continue to test the viability of olive cultivation.
The need for action becomes even more pressing when looking at global data. By 2050, more than 53% of olive-growing areas along Turkey’s Aegean Coast may no longer support olive cultivation. Similarly, Spain faced a devastating 50% drop in its olive harvest in 2023, contributing to a staggering 130% spike in olive oil prices that same year.
To ensure long-term sustainability, growers are turning their attention to genetic diversity and soil health. Michael Fox, CEO of California Olive Ranch, emphasizes this commitment:
"We are only a few years into a long-term journey. We believe over time that healthy soils lead to healthy trees, which leads to healthy fruit and even better olive oil."
Producers like Big Horn Olive Oil are setting an example by meeting rising demand while maintaining quality, even in the face of climate pressures. The road ahead requires diversifying sourcing strategies, choosing resilient olive varieties, improving irrigation systems, and prioritizing soil health. By building adaptive and resilient farming systems now, olive growers can navigate the challenges of an unpredictable climate and continue delivering the high-quality olive oils that American consumers rely on.
FAQs
How are U.S. olive growers dealing with the challenges of extreme weather?
U.S. olive growers are tackling extreme weather challenges head-on by adopting smart strategies to protect their crops and maintain steady harvests. These efforts include upgrading irrigation systems to save water, using mulch and cover crops to safeguard soil health, and introducing olive varieties better suited to changing climates. Additionally, growers are fine-tuning pruning and tree management techniques to help olive trees handle heatwaves and sudden cold spells more effectively.
By leaning into sustainable farming methods, these growers are not only addressing the challenges of unpredictable weather but also improving the overall quality of their olives. Take Big Horn Olive Oil, for instance - they source olives from areas that implement these forward-thinking techniques, ensuring their Ultra Premium Extra Virgin Olive Oils are consistently fresh, flavorful, and rich in health benefits.
What technologies are helping olive farmers adapt to climate change and improve harvests?
To tackle the challenges brought on by climate change, olive farmers are turning to modern technologies and advanced practices to improve both their harvests and the quality of their olives. Here are some key strategies they’re using:
- Precision farming tools: These rely on data to fine-tune irrigation, fertilization, and pest management, ensuring resources are used efficiently.
- Drought-resistant olive varieties: Specially developed to thrive even in areas with limited water availability.
- Remote sensing and GIS mapping: These technologies help farmers keep an eye on crop health and anticipate risks linked to climate conditions.
- Regulated deficit irrigation: A water-saving method that maintains fruit quality while reducing water usage.
By integrating these smart farming techniques, olive growers are better equipped to handle environmental shifts and maintain reliable, high-quality harvests. Companies like Big Horn Olive Oil, known for their Ultra Premium Extra Virgin Olive Oils, benefit directly from these advancements, as they source olives grown with sustainable and cutting-edge methods.
Why is it crucial for U.S. olive producers to prioritize quality and freshness despite climate challenges?
Climate issues like drought, extreme heat, and unpredictable weather patterns can heavily influence olive harvests across the U.S. However, by emphasizing quality and freshness, producers can still create oils that stand out, even when conditions are less than ideal. This approach not only safeguards the oil's flavor and health benefits but also reinforces consumer confidence in their products.
To tackle these challenges, producers are turning to strategies like efficient irrigation practices, choosing olive varieties better suited to withstand shifting climates, and timing harvests carefully. These measures help ensure that the oils produced retain their excellence, no matter what environmental hurdles arise.